Will GTA 6 cost the US $1 billion on launch day? The viral estimate doesn't add up

You may have seen it in the past week on TV news sites, in your feed or in a group chat: 1.5 million Americans will skip work when Grand Theft Auto VI comes out on Nov. 19, and the sick day will cost the US economy $1 billion. The number is everywhere. It also doesn't hold up.

The figure comes from one economist's projection, not from a survey or a study, and nobody has published the data or the calculation behind it. Worked through, the inputs reported alongside it come to well under half of $1 billion. It doesn't come from Rockstar or Take-Two either.

Where the number comes from

The fullest version we found ran on IBTimes UK on Sept. 7. It credits the estimate to José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, and calls it "an academic projection rather than an official forecast." According to IBTimes, Montalvo based the figure on roughly 1.5 million absences and average output of about $70,000 a year per US worker, which it says works out to a short-term productivity dip of around 2%. It adds that men aged 18 to 30 would make up most of the missing workers, with the technology sector hit hardest.

The article doesn't say where Montalvo made the estimate, and it links to no study, survey or data. We couldn't find a study or a worked calculation anywhere else either.

The claim took off again in October. Cincinnati's WKRC ran it on Oct. 20, citing a New York Post story from the day before that drew on IBTimes. The retellings we read repeat the same three numbers.

The numbers don't add up

Take the inputs at face value. One and a half million workers producing $70,000 a year each add up to $105 billion a year. Spread over roughly 260 working days, that's about $400 million a day, by our arithmetic.

To lose $1 billion in a day, each absent worker would have to produce about $670 a day, or roughly $170,000 a year, more than twice the figure the reports give. Either the inputs or the total is off, and without the calculation there's no way to tell which.

The 1.5 million figure has the same problem. It's presented as how many Americans "plan to skip work," but the reports give no poll or survey behind it.

What's actually known about launch day

• GTA 6 comes out Thursday, Nov. 19, on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, Rockstar says.
• It unlocks the night before for many players. US store listings unlock it at midnight Eastern, which is 9 p.m. Pacific on Nov. 18. Rockstar hasn't announced a launch hour. Our release time guide shows when it unlocks where you live.
• Digital copies can be downloaded early. Pre-load opens Nov. 12, so the game can be ready to play the moment it unlocks. Our pre-load guide has the details.

How many people take the day off is anyone's guess, and that's the honest answer to the $1 billion question. Our Is it true? page checks other GTA 6 claims against what Rockstar has actually said, and the launch calendar has every confirmed date around Nov. 19.